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Monday, February 12th, 2018
Table of Contents

1 Introduction
5 PMID
 [F] Diseases Research  / PubMed Research Articles  /
The short-term impact of economic uncertainty on motor vehicle collisions.

PubMed

 

Resource

Preventive medicine Feb ; ()

Authors

Vandoros S1; Avendano M2; Kawachi I3;

Author Information
  • 1Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, 677 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA, USA; King's College London, Strand, London WC2R 2LS, United Kingdom. Electronic address: vandoros@hsph.harvard.edu.
  • 2Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, 677 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA, USA; King's College London, Strand, London WC2R 2LS, United Kingdom. Electronic address: mavendan@hsph.harvard.edu.
  • 3Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, 677 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA, USA. Electronic address: ikawachi@hsph.harvard.edu.

Abstract

Stress and anxiety lead to attention loss and sleep deprivation and may reduce driving performance, increasing the risk of motor vehicle collision. We used evidence from a natural experiment to examine whether daily changes in economic uncertainty, potentially leading to attention or sleep loss, are associated with collisions in Great Britain. Daily data from the economic policy uncertainty index, derived from analysis of daily UK newspapers, were linked to the daily number of motor vehicle collisions in Great Britain over the period 2005-2015, obtained from the Department for Transport. Exploiting daily variations in economic uncertainty, we used a GARCH approach to model daily rates of motor vehicle collisions as a function of economic uncertainty, controlling for month and day of the week, monthly unemployment rates and weekly unleaded petrol prices. A spike in the daily economic uncertainty index was associated with an immediate increase in the number of motor vehicle collisions. Results were robust to various sensitivity analyses. Overall, daily increases in economic uncertainty are associated with short-term spikes in motor vehicle collisions. Preventive and traffic control measures may need to increase during periods of economic uncertainty.

Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

PMID

29427672

Others

Publication Type: Journal Article


This article is licensed under the the National Library of Medicine License. It uses material from the PubMed National Library of Medicine Data.


Last Modified:   2016-03-27


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